The $8 trillion global demand for 42,595 new commercial jets by 2042 has been forecast by aviation giant Boeing.
The forecast follows an increase in domestic and international flight traffic that has the industry back to pre-pandemic levels.
In anticipation of the Paris Air Show, Boeing published its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), a forecast of the demand for commercial aircraft and services over the next 20 years.
The CMO observed that passenger traffic is still growing faster than the 2.6% world GDP growth. With airlines replacing around half of the world’s fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models, the worldwide fleet has nearly doubled to 48,600 planes, growing by 3.5% annually.
“The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency, and capitalizing on resurgent demand,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.
“Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects a further evolution of passenger traffic tied to the global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery.”
More than 40% of the world’s demand will come from Asia-Pacific markets, with China accounting for half of that amount.
With India accounting for more than 90% of the region’s passenger flow, South Asia’s fleet will grow at the fastest rate in the world, exceeding 7% annually.
Together, North America and Europe will make up around 20% of the world’s demand.
By 2042, low-cost carriers will run 40% or more of the single-aisle fleet, up from 10% now.